Roma, 2 mag – “Thanks to the immigrants we can pay our pensions”. How many times have we heard this? Among the supporters of the invasion is a mantra, a good story for all seasons and you would like to give the final blow to the “populist”, relying on our rundown social security system. A story, in fact. Or maybe a fairy tale. Will not, the immigrants shore up INPS accounts? On the contrary: the system is likely to go belly up precisely because of the impact on long-term foreign workers.
It only needs a little common sense to realize that something was not right. Because it is true that immigrants – or at least a part of them – work and then pay contributions. With stable unemployment well over 11% the reasoning is certainly not a logical. But there’s more. Because it is still true that, unlike the Italian workers, immigrants have lower average age and therefore can pay the mite longer. But when what will happen when they retire. In an interview with Libero, Gian Carlo Blangiardo, professor of demography at the University Milano Bicocca, long in the forefront on the problems of an aging population and low birthrate, explains:
“Starting from 2030, extending the outlook on the long-term – we will have a number of people not born in Italy who will reach the age to retire (around 65 years). We speak of about 200 thousand people per year in addition to our children of the baby boom of the 60’s So not only we will be dealing with people born and aged in Italy, but also with foreign born elsewhere and aged here. ” In many, among them 200 thousand, ” have settled in old age – continues Blangiardo – even at forty ‘years. It happens so that these people will be entitled to a pension, but their checks will be extremely low , perhaps below the minimum level of decency. If in fifteen years we will find a lot of people in these conditions, someone – legitimately – will say that these people do not have enough, and you must take action. ” Thinks the professor: “Today the ‘immigration budget may be positive, because we have young people who pay the contributions and not cashing in. We must consider the system of jurisdiction. And that is, to calculate that what is paid today contribution purposes is an anticipation. Immigrants are not giving a contribution to the country: they are pouring in a sum that is there waiting to be returned . ” We’ll get to the point where the system of pensions will be at risk because of the variations of potential retirees. The inputs in the pension system will tend to increase and will grow the gap between who leaves the board (dies) and who receives. ”
All good intentions, in short, clash with the long-term prospects. Because immigrants, although they are currently considered by troops as a feel-good resource for INPS payments, will also retire . And the nodes will then come home to roost. To address the situation, explains always Blangiardo, “we would need flows of immigrants to be pumped constantly in, at the rate of at least 400-500 thousand people per year”, which, however, would give “a number of side issues: how do you integrate such a large number of people? “